The final two spots in the Round of 64 will be decided Wednesday evening in Dayton, Ohio, on the second night of the First Four.
The No. 16 seed in the Midwest Region is up for grabs as Grambling State and Montana State are battling it out for the right to play No. 1 Purdue. Elsewhere in the bracket, the No. 10 seed in the South will be decided when Colorado plays Boise State with the winner advancing to face No. 7 Florida.
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No. 16 Grambling State Tigers vs. No. 16 Montana State Bobcats
Game Info: 6:40 p.m. ET | truTV
Spread: Grambling State +3.5 (-105) | Montana State -3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: GRAM (+146) | MTST (-178)
Total: 134.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-100)
Grambling State earned a spot in the Big Dance for the first time ever this season. The Tigers won the SWAC tournament Saturday against Texas Southern, 75–66, to cap off a truly impressive run. Grambling is 18–4 since Jan. 1 following a 3–10 start and 9–1 over its last 10. The Tigers’ lone loss came in double overtime against Alabama State, a team they beat in the SWAC tournament in their very next game. Montana State is making its 13th March Madness appearance and first since 2019 after beating in-state rival Montana in the Big Sky tournament title game.
The winner of Wednesday’s game will face No. 1 Purdue, which infamously lost to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson a season ago. The Knights went from the First Four in Dayton to upsetting a No. 1 seed, a blueprint the Tigers and Bobcats both hope to follow come Friday.
Grambling played a brutal non-conference schedule, which explains why it began the season with such a poor record. Before SWAC play began, the Tigers played — and lost to — six tournament teams: Colorado, Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, Drake and Florida. Grambling State is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country (67.6 ppg) and is extremely loose with the ball, committing 13.4 turnovers per game. Guards Kintavious Dozier (13.1 ppg) and Tra’Michael Moton (11.8 ppg) are the team’s top scorers. Though the Tigers have a negative point differential on the year (-1.4), they have a sound defense that surrenders just 69 points per game.
Montana State has a bit more going for it offensively, though its schedule does not stack up to Grambling State’s. The Bobcats went 1–2 against Quad 1 and 2 teams and lost to the two tournament teams they played: Long Beach State and South Dakota State. Opponents have to respect Montana State from beyond the arc as the team shoots just under 37% from deep and makes nine threes per game. Robert Ford III (15.9 ppg) shoots better than 42% from three-point land and threes account for a decent portion of the Bobcats’ 75.1 points per game average. Montana State just barely has a positive point differential, allowing 74.1 points per game. The Bobcats do have active hands as their 8.2 steals per game are tied for the 40th-most in the country — Ford ranks third nationally with 2.94.
Though Grambling State is battle tested, it does not have enough scoring options to keep pace with Montana State. The Bobcats’ shooting and playmaking ability, specifically that of Ford, will be the difference in this game. While Montana State’s 3–8 record as a favorite against the spread is concerning, the Bobcats have covered five of their last six games — each time as an underdog.
Bet: Montana State -3.5 (-110)